Crystal Ball Gazing

By Craig Lowe


It seems like everyone is interested in where Real Estate salespeople see the market headed. I must be asked this question at least twice a day. Being at the cold face of the market we can certainly give an anecdotal account of how we see the present day situation. Crystal ball gazing is another story however. Although history does not repeat itself exactly clear trends and cycles do emerge and I think for those interested in the future the best place to start is historical analysis.

Looking at The Reserve Bank’s website is a good place to start. I found an excellent report detailing as many as six previous recessions since the great depression in 1930. It made fairly sober reading. It also hits home that real property prices can and do fall in value and often stagnate for long periods of time. For instance, after the first oil shock of 1974, as growth slowed, there was a sharp squeeze in credit. Real house price inflation fell quickly, from 31 percent in June 1974 to -10 percent in December 1975. From 1975, real house prices fell every quarter for the following five-and-a half years, as the migration outflow reinforced the correction from the previous extreme overvaluation. For those interested I found this report a fascinating read: "Some perspectives on past recessions" [PDF, 380kb]

Beating The Odds

If you need to sell at some stage but you are trying to wait out the current market conditions you are employing a loosing strategy in my opinion. No one knows how long the current conditions are going to go on for, but one thing is for sure, it is a very serious and endemic worldwide economic crisis and you could be in for a long wait.

I can now say definitively that selling in this market is not necessarily a bad option. After a couple of atrocious months at the beginning of the year I have adjusted to the new market conditions and my sales have really picked up steam with twelve sales in less than two months, an achievement in any market particularly since winter is traditionally slow. Admittedly not all of those sales were smooth but they all had happy endings.

What was the difference between the start of the year and the middle of the year for my business? It certainly wasn’t a change in market conditions! The fact is it took time to work out the most optimal strategies and techniques for the current climate. Business is about constantly adapting and changing to give you the best chance of success.

Now that I have a better understanding of the psychology of buyers in this market I know how to attract more of them with better marketing. I also have developed negotiating strategies to close deals in a market where buyers are so cautious they are taking a long time to make decisions. I can make advertising budgets stretch further to allow for longer average selling times. All these things are increasing the odds of a successful sale and giving my clients the edge they need to beat the market.

If you would like to make a move but are worried that it is the wrong time to sell I am happy to provide you with a quick presentation detailing what I have learnt about the current market and how best to go about selling your home. I can also provide you with pricing expectations. There is no cost or obligation. Just phone me on 021-764-647 to arrange a time.


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