Wellington Region

In the three months to June, Wellington metro house values fell ≈2.3%, bringing the average to NZ$844,600—a 5.5% drop compared to June 2024, and 26.1% below the national late‑2021 highs.

This decline reflects weakening demand and subdued local sentiment—despite a growing supply of listings, which is putting downward pressure on prices.

According to recent REINZ data, Wellington’s House Price Index has eased approximately 4.1% year-on-year, with a more modest quarterly decline of 1.3%—indicating a stabilising market rather than a sharp correction. Meanwhile, time-to-sell has shortened to around 41 days, suggesting more realistic vendor pricing and improved buyer engagement.

First-home buyers and downsizers continue to make up a large portion of active purchasers in the capital. Their increased presence is likely driven by greater certainty around mortgage rate trends and the appeal of softened prices in well-located areas.

Key Drivers in Wellington:

• Oversupply of listings is pressuring prices.
  
  
• Stronger participation from first-home purchasers.
  
  
• Continuing economic uncertainty in the public sector following budget cuts, with mortgage affordability remaining a key consideration.

Auckland Snapshot

Auckland’s housing market edged downward in the June quarter, with average values falling approximately 1.0% to NZ$1,232,340, which is 1.4% below June 2024 and nearly 19% below its late-2021 peak. The decline was broad across most council areas, although pockets of resistance such as Auckland City (+0.1%) remain.

High listing volumes and cautious buyer behaviour are continuing trends. Yet, buyer activity from first-home purchasers persists, particularly in more affordable suburbs. Growing supply of new townhouses also supports more balanced options.

National Context & Outlook

• Nationwide flat pricing: After slight tightening over winter, the OneRoof‑Valocity index shows that national house prices have remained steady since January.
  
  
• Slight mid‑year recovery expected: Governments and economists forecast modest growth—ANZ estimates a 2.5–4.5% rise for 2025, while Reuters’ poll suggests ~3.8% nationwide growth.
  
  
• Mortgage rate dynamics: Following OCR reductions totalling approximately 2.25 percentage points since August 2024, RBNZ rate cuts have translated into lower mortgage rates, helping to steady demand. However, abundant housing supply keeps upward pressure in check.
  
  
• Construction slowing: Stats NZ reported that Wellington’s residential building consents dropped approximately 28% year-on-year through late 2024, signalling a potential reduction in future housing supply.

Why the Wellington Market Matters

As New Zealand’s capital and public sector hub, Wellington exhibits distinct characteristics: resilience in buyer segments like first‑home purchasers and downsizers, but also vulnerability to public‑sector budget shifts . With many listings on the market and interest rate clarity looming, buyers are reasonably cautious yet active, hinting at a stabilising cycle through mid‑2025.

Summary Table

Outlook for Wellington

Wellington’s housing market is stabilising after a period of softening. With steady interest rates and manageable supply, a modest recovery in late 2025 is feasible—particularly if public sector investment rebounds and listings gradually ease. Yet affordability concerns and cautious buyer sentiment will likely continue to temper growth.

This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Buyers and sellers should seek independent advice before making property decisions.